JPMorgan’s quants see upside for gold prices from here after Trump win
Investing.com — Following Donald Trump’s recent election victory, JPMorgan’s quantitative analysts anticipate potential upside for gold prices, with positive flows into gold ETFs and futures signaling sustained demand.
JPMorgan said in a note Thursday that this “positive flow trend” into gold, combined with a recent bitcoin rally, suggests that gold may have room for further gains as investors seek safe-haven assets.
According to JPMorgan, both gold ETFs and futures have experienced net inflows over recent months, diverging sharply from the 2016 election cycle, which saw outflows as investors favored equities.
In contrast, this time, the flows “point to upside for gold prices,” reflecting investor preference for assets perceived as hedges against market uncertainty and inflation risks.
Inflation concerns also play a role in supporting gold’s outlook. JPMorgan analysts noted puzzling outflows from inflation-linked assets, like the TIP (US TIPS) ETF, which has seen a 10% decrease in outstanding shares since August.
They add that by comparison, TIP ETFs expanded by 18% during the 2016 election, a period when inflation fears were similarly heightened. The bank suggests that a reversal of these outflows could support inflation expectations and exert upward pressure on gold.
Additionally, analysts pointed out that financial conditions and liquidity appear favorable for gold, with a trend toward looser conditions potentially fueling growth and inflation into 2025.
While certain asset flows have diverged from previous patterns, the sustained inflows into gold ETFs and futures indicate the bank’s confidence in gold’s resilience.
According to JPMorgan, gold could continue to benefit from its role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset, driven by a market environment marked by “further room to propagate” for safe-haven flows amid the Trump administration’s anticipated policies.
