Predicting the Bitcoin ‘Trump Trade’ Before the Election
It’s been a month to remember for crypto investors. Even though Bitcoin has yet to cross over the $100k mark, its price is up by more than 30% in November alone. Nearly all of those gains came after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. His pledge to make the US the world’s ‘crypto capital’ paves the way for a crypto-friendly policy now that he’s about to return to the White House. No wonder the crypto community is optimistic.
Needless to say, prior to the election we were just as clueless about who the next US President will be as anyone else. The polls showed that the outcome was going to be a coin-toss with each candidate having a roughly 50% chance of winning. So based on politics alone, buying Bitcoin prior to the election would’ve been a 50-50 bet. We don’t like such bets, but we were bullish on BTC anyway. The reason had nothing to do with the election. It was all about Elliott Wave analysis and the message the market was sending days before Trump’s landslide win.
It was November 3rd, 2024, two days before the election, when we shared this 4h chart with our Elliott Wave Pro subscribers. It revealed a complete w)-x)-y) correction between $73 794 and $49 577. According to the theory, once a correction is over the preceding trend resumes. In Bitcoin’s case, the preceding trend was clearly to the upside and it seemed to have resumed months ago.
The choppy and overlapping recovery from $49 577 looked like a sequence of first and second waves within a larger five-wave impulse. It was therefore marked 1-2-i)-ii)-i-ii, meaning that the most powerful phase of the rally in wave iii of iii) of 3 lied ahead. This led us to conclude that “a path to over $90k can be identified with reasonable Elliott Wave assumptions as long as $58 867 is intact“. Bitcoin was trading below $70k at the time and Kamala Harris still had a decent chance of winning, according to the polls. The updated chart below shows what happened next.
Trump’s win, which became a reality on November 6th, three days after our analysis, pushed the price over the $80k mark in the week of the election. The Elliott Wave structure of the preceding recovery had warned us that it was unlikely to stop there. $90k was exceeded on November 12th. Ten days later, Bitcoin was on the verge of breaching $100k. The invalidation level at $58 867 was never threatened.
This is yet another great example of the market somehow predicting real-life events and developments. We don’t know how it does it, but it is fascinating every time. What matters for traders is that the stage is often set days, weeks, sometimes months in advance. The Elliott Wave patterns are there for everyone to see long before the alleged ’cause’ becomes known. In this case, the stage was set for a big rally in the price of Bitcoin three days before it became a ‘Trump trade’.
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